By Senior Soccer Betting Analyst

World Cup 2026 June 29 Recap — Two Giants Eliminated, the Bracket Cracks Open

Updated July 2026
Licensed
Available in US
Fast payouts
18+ Only

Loading...

Want more predictions?
Join our Telegram channel
Join

A penalty shootout is the cleanest way for a major to die at a World Cup, and on June 29 the Round of 32 collected two of them in a single afternoon. Germany are out. The Netherlands are out. Brazil are still in but only because Gabriel Martinelli volleyed a 90+5 winner past Japan. If you held any outright tickets going into the day, the board you wake up to looks nothing like the one you went to sleep with. Here is the practitioner’s read on June 29 — confirmed results, the lines that actually moved, and what to do before the next kickoff.

A Canadian bettor reviewing the rebuilt World Cup 2026 knockout bracket the morning after a major upset day
Two pre-tournament favourites gone in one day — the practitioner’s job is to re-price, not react.
R32 ties played 3 (June 29, 2026)
Eliminated Germany, Netherlands, Japan
Biggest outright move Brazil 14.00 → 10.50
Two of the shortest pre-tournament prices — Germany and the Netherlands — were eliminated on the same day. The trophy market widened at the bottom (more live “dark horses”) and tightened at the top (Brazil, Morocco, Paraguay all shorter). Your outright tickets need re-pricing before the next R32 kickoff.

TL;DR — What you need to know in 30 seconds

  • Brazil 2-1 Japan — Sano 29′ (JPN); Casemiro 56′, Martinelli 90+5′ (BRA). Brazil through to face the Ivory Coast–Norway winner.
  • Germany 1-1 Paraguay (a.e.t.) — Paraguay 4-3 on pens — Havertz 54′ (GER); Enciso 42′ (PAR). Germany eliminated; Paraguay through to face the France–Sweden winner.
  • Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (a.e.t.) — Morocco 3-2 on pens — Gakpo 72′ (NED); Diop 90+1′ (MAR). Netherlands eliminated; Morocco book a Round of 16 tie against Canada.
  • Outright board: France steady (4.40 decimal), Brazil shortened sharply (14.00 → 10.50). Stale lines still quoting Germany or the Netherlands as live contenders should be ignored.
  • Bracket effect: Canada vs Morocco is now fixed for the Round of 16 — the first KO meeting between the two nations.

Results and minutes confirmed via Wikipedia’s 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout-stage page, ESPN and Yahoo match reports (June 29, 2026).

The results, in one table

Match Result Scorers (min) Advanced
Brazil 2-1 Japan 2-1 in 90 Sano 29′; Casemiro 56′, Martinelli 90+5′ Brazil
Germany 1-1 Paraguay 4-3 pens (a.e.t.) Havertz 54′; Enciso 42′ Paraguay
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco 3-2 pens (a.e.t.) Gakpo 72′; Diop 90+1′ Morocco

What actually changed for bettors

1. The outright market lost two of its short prices in one afternoon. Germany were a top-tier pre-tournament play; the Netherlands sat just behind. Both lost shootouts in normal-time draws and are out. Any sportsbook page or aggregator screen you saved before June 29 that still lists either as a live contender is stale — discard it.

2. Brazil shortened sharply on the comeback. Pre-match outright on Brazil was around 14.00 decimal (+1300 American). After Martinelli’s stoppage-time volley, the price at major sportsbooks was 10.50 (+950) — a clear single-game shortening. Casemiro’s 56th-minute equaliser and the late winner protected the price; a third penalty shootout of the day would have widened it again.

3. The "dark horse" pocket got two new short-priced members. Morocco and Paraguay both shortened after their wins (no specific from→to outright line has been widely published yet), but the qualitative move is unambiguous. If you carried small Morocco or Paraguay tickets from earlier in the tournament, the value has already been priced in — adding now is paying retail, not finding edge.

4. Canada’s Round of 16 opponent is set. Morocco’s penalty win against the Netherlands fixes the Round of 16 tie: Canada vs Morocco. That is the next CanMNT page on the board, and the local pricing window opens immediately.

Brazil — outright winner, before vs after June 29 Pre-match (June 29 AM): 14.00 decimal (+1300 American) Post-match (June 30 AM): 10.50 decimal (+950 American) Implied probability shift: ~7.1% → ~9.5%. The market gave Brazil roughly a 2.4-point bump for surviving Japan in 90 minutes — most of that priced in the moment Martinelli’s volley crossed the line.

How the bracket looks now

The Round of 16 picture cleared substantially on June 29. With three R32 ties played:

  • Canada vs Morocco (R16) — confirmed (W73 vs W76).
  • Paraguay vs winner of France-Sweden (R16) — confirmed (W75 vs W77).
  • Brazil vs winner of Ivory Coast-Norway (R16) — confirmed (W74 vs W78).

The other five R16 ties still depend on the eight R32 matches between June 30 and July 3. For the full bracket projection, see the Round of 16 betting preview.

Quotes from the upset day

"There’s a real sense of dejection in the dressing room. Unfortunately, that’s how football works sometimes, some teams can win with simple means. And you have to defend against those means consistently. We took too long to make our opponent chase the game. … Our build-up play was too slow." — Julian Nagelsmann, Germany head coach (Bundesliga.com, June 29, 2026)

"We don’t have the pedigree that allows us to dictate the terms of the game. We dance to the music we’re given… sometimes it’s cumbia, sometimes it’s tango, sometimes it’s rumba… today, it was polka." — Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay head coach (Tribuna.com / Bundesliga.com, June 29, 2026)

On the Reece James fitness story for England’s June 30 tie against DR Congo: reports were split — ESPN and Yahoo had him doubtful, SportsGambler had him available. Treat this as live information that may not be settled before the lineup sheet.

Your next steps before the next R32 kickoff

  • [ ] Strike Germany and the Netherlands from any outright ticket spreadsheet
  • [ ] Don’t chase Brazil at 10.50 unless your model still has them ahead of France (4.40)
  • [ ] Hold Morocco/Paraguay tickets you already owned; new Morocco backs are paying full retail
  • [ ] Bookmark Canada vs Morocco — local pricing window is open now
  • [ ] Cross-check the same outright line at two Canadian books — decimal prices differ

Where to read next

When you act on these reads, Canadian-facing books such as Boomerang Bet, BetiBet and MrPacho carry the markets named above in decimal and C$. Stake only what you set aside, and shop the line first.

Which teams went out on June 29?
Germany (4-3 on penalties to Paraguay after 1-1), the Netherlands (3-2 on penalties to Morocco after 1-1) and Japan (1-2 to Brazil). All three exits confirmed via Wikipedia’s knockout-stage page and the ESPN / Yahoo match reports.
How did Brazil’s outright price move?
From 14.00 decimal (+1300) pre-match to 10.50 (+950) post-match per FOX Sports and ESPN BET — a single-day shortening driven by Martinelli’s 90+5′ winner.
Is Canada vs Morocco confirmed for the Round of 16?
Yes — Morocco’s penalty win against the Netherlands locks W76, and Canada won W73 against South Africa on June 28. The Round of 16 tie is fixed.
What about the Germany / Netherlands lines I still see on aggregator pages?
Discard them. Both teams are eliminated; any aggregator screen still listing either as a live outright contender is stale. Refresh before backing.

Odds are decimal and were accurate as of the times stated (outright as of June 30, 2026 AM ET; where books price the same market differently, ranges are shown). Lines move; confirm at your sportsbook before betting. 19+ (18+ in AB/QC/MB). Bet responsibly — ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.